The hereby presented tool uses a mathematical model to simulate a variety of COVID-19 long term outcomes based on user-defined parameters. This output of the model depends on model assumptions and parameter choices.

It is not a medical predictor, and should be used for informational and research purposes only. Please carefully consider the parameters you choose. Interpret and use the simulated results responsibly. Authors are not liable for any direct or indirect consequences of this usage.

Our associated publication "Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns" can be found on ScienceAdvances. Additionally, if you want to reproduce the figures as shown in the paper be sure to take a look at our github repository! The source code for this website is also available on github.

Model parameters
Main model parameters as described in our publication, short descriptions of the parameters can be accessed by hovering over the question-mark icon.
Modulation intensity of contagious contacts and external influx
The following gives you the possibility to modulate parameters over time via drag and drop. First add a change point (logistic function) or peak (Gaussian) via the buttons and then move the generated points to modulate the parameter to your satisfaction.